BTC Price Prediction: Will Bitcoin Reclaim $100,000 Amid Market Turbulence?

#BTC

• Technical Outlook: BTC tests lower Bollinger Band with MACD divergence hinting at potential reversal
• Sentiment Drivers: Regulatory uncertainty and macro fears offset by long-term institutional interest
• Price Catalyst: A close above $105K (20MA) could reignite momentum toward $100K

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Testing Key Support Levels

BTC is currently trading at $96,177.61, below its 20-day moving average of $105,023.58, indicating short-term bearish pressure. The MACD shows a bullish crossover but with weakening momentum (histogram at 1,664.67). Bollinger Bands suggest volatility compression, with price NEAR the lower band ($94,735.68), potentially signaling oversold conditions. Analyst Olivia notes: 'A sustained hold above $94,700 could trigger a rebound toward the middle band ($105,023), but failure may extend losses.'

Market Sentiment Turns Cautious Amid Regulatory and Macro Uncertainty

Negative headlines dominate: Gold outperforming BTC as safe-haven demand rises, record ETF outflows from BlackRock, and delayed Fed rate cuts weigh on crypto. Olivia observes: 'The CFTC's regulatory push and post-shutdown selloff reflect institutional caution. However, breaches of the 365-day MA often precede buying opportunities long-term.'

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Gold Outshines Bitcoin in 2025 as Safe-Haven Demand Surges

Gold has emerged as the dominant hard asset in 2025, posting a 36% year-to-date gain while Bitcoin trails at 15%-16%. The yellow metal's relentless rally reflects geopolitical tensions, record central bank buying, and a flight to safety that has overshadowed crypto's volatility.

Bitcoin's earlier gains were eroded by severe pullbacks and ETF outflows, marking the first sustained underperformance against gold since BTC entered mainstream finance. Analysts emphasize this isn't a crypto breakdown but rather an extreme risk-off environment favoring gold's defensive characteristics.

The divergence highlights how each asset responds to macroeconomic stress. Gold's steady climb contrasts with Bitcoin's whipsaw movements, though both remain among the year's top performers. Market veterans note the reversal challenges the decade-long narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold.'

Bitcoin Faces Sharp Decline Following U.S. Government Shutdown Resolution

Bitcoin's price plummeted 25% within a week after the conclusion of the U.S. government shutdown on November 13, 2025, mirroring its 2019 post-shutdown behavior. The cryptocurrency market entered a deep capitulation phase as leveraged positions faced forced liquidations.

While altcoins show signs of stabilization, Bitcoin continues its downward trajectory. Market sentiment shifted abruptly from bullish to risk-off, catching many investors off guard. The 43-day shutdown—the longest in U.S. history—appears to have triggered similar macroeconomic responses in crypto markets as seen six years prior.

Analysts observe nearly identical price action patterns between the 2019 and 2025 events. The rapid deleveraging suggests institutional traders are reassessing exposure to volatile assets during periods of political uncertainty.

Crypto Fear Index Plunges to March Lows as Bitcoin Breaches $96K

Crypto markets are gripped by extreme fear as Bitcoin's slide below $96,000 triggers a wave of liquidations and miner sell-offs. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has collapsed to 16—its lowest level since March—signaling potential capitulation ahead.

Derivatives traders suffered $610 million in liquidations within 24 hours, while long-term holders accelerated distribution. The index's dramatic fall from 25 last week reflects mounting macro uncertainty and retail panic.

Historical patterns suggest caution: when the index last hit 15 in March, Bitcoin bottomed near $82,500. Analysts recommend dollar-cost averaging and selective accumulation, noting that emotional trading often compounds losses during volatility spikes.

Bitcoin Tests Critical Support as 365-Day Moving Average Breach Sparks Correction Fears

Bitcoin's price slump below its 365-day moving average has traders bracing for potential downside. The digital asset breached the key technical level at $102,000, mirroring December 2021's bearish reversal pattern that preceded the 2022 crypto winter.

On-chain metrics reveal mounting pressure on recent buyers, with holders from the 6-12 month cohort now underwater. The $92,000-$95,000 zone emerges as make-or-break support—a failure to hold could trigger cascading liquidations toward $85,000.

Market structure echoes late-cycle dynamics as Bitcoin struggles to maintain its bull market scaffolding. The 365-day MA served as reliable support throughout 2023's rally, making its current breakdown particularly significant for medium-term price action.

CFTC Poised to Take Lead in Crypto Regulation, Says ProCap BTC's Jeff Park

Jeff Park, Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC, argues that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is better equipped than the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to oversee cryptocurrency markets. His remarks come amid growing regulatory debates in the U.S., particularly around a proposed crypto market structure bill.

The CFTC's expertise in commodities and derivatives positions it as a natural fit for regulating crypto, Park noted in a discussion with Anthony Pompliano. "The CFTC is in the business of financial innovation," he said, emphasizing its ability to manage capital efficiency in complex markets.

Clearer regulatory guidelines from the CFTC could spur innovation and accelerate development in the crypto sector. This shift would mark a significant step toward resolving the long-standing jurisdictional ambiguity between the CFTC and SEC.

Bitcoin's Pullback Reignites Schiff-Saylor Debate

Bitcoin's recent downturn has reignited the long-standing feud between gold advocate Peter Schiff and MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor, with both figures doubling down on their opposing views. Schiff seized the opportunity to critique MicroStrategy's leveraged Bitcoin strategy, noting its 64% stock decline since November 2024 and highlighting what he sees as inadequate returns on its $47.5 billion BTC accumulation.

The debate took a philosophical turn as Schiff argued Bitcoin shares fiat currency's dependence on collective belief rather than intrinsic value—a claim that sparked renewed crypto community backlash. Saylor's response remains pending, but his historical defense of Bitcoin as superior to traditional assets suggests an imminent counterargument.

Bybit and Block Scholes Report Sustained Bearish Sentiment in Crypto Markets Despite US Shutdown Resolution

Bitcoin's struggle to reclaim the $100,000 level underscores deepening bearish sentiment across crypto derivatives markets. The asset briefly dipped below $96,000 as recovery attempts faced repeated rejections, mirroring weakness in traditional equity markets.

Options markets reflect the pessimism through skewed implied volatility favoring puts, while open interest in large-cap perpetual contracts remains nearly halved since October. This persistent risk-off posture suggests institutional traders are hedging against further downside.

The Bybit-Block Scholes collaboration reveals a striking divergence: where traditional markets saw temporary relief after the US government funding resolution, crypto markets failed to sustain even short-lived rallies. Derivatives data now paints a clearer picture of professional traders' defensive positioning.

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Sees Record Outflows as Market Sentiment Sours

BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF recorded its largest single-day outflow since inception, with $473.72 million withdrawn on November 14. The bleeding spread across major issuers—Fidelity saw $2 million exits while Grayscale lost $25.09 million—as the broader ETF market posted $866 million in net outflows.

Robert Kiyosaki framed the sell-off as symptomatic of global liquidity constraints rather than lost faith in Bitcoin. The 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' author tweeted his intention to accumulate more BTC once the downturn stabilizes, stating: 'The cause of all markets crashing is the world is in need of cash...I do not need cash.'

Market sentiment hit extreme fear levels with Bitcoin's Fear and Greed Index plunging to 16. The rout dragged most cryptocurrencies down 10-30% over the past month, revealing stark performance divergences across the sector.

Leaked Emails Reveal Epstein Helped Fund MIT’s Bitcoin Work

Newly released emails from the Jeffrey Epstein estate reveal his direct involvement in funding the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Digital Currency Initiative (DCI), a program that supported early Bitcoin Core developers. The correspondence, obtained by the House Oversight Committee, outlines how Epstein’s financial contributions flowed into MIT’s Media Lab and indirectly bolstered the bitcoin development ecosystem.

Former MIT Media Lab director Joichi Ito explicitly thanked Epstein for enabling the DCI’s rapid launch in 2015, citing the use of Epstein’s gift funds as critical to securing key developers after the Bitcoin Foundation’s collapse. Epstein’s brief response—"Gavin is clever"—referenced Gavin Andresen, a prominent Bitcoin Core contributor.

The funding pipeline also involved Epstein associate Leon Black, whose donations to MIT may have been anonymously coordinated. While the financial backing provided vital support during a developmental vacuum, technical influence on Bitcoin’s trajectory appears minimal.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Dim as Crypto Markets Weaken

Bitcoin plunged to a six-month low amid fading expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The cryptocurrency's decline mirrors broader market unease as investors recalibrate their outlook on monetary policy.

Market-implied odds of a December rate reduction have collapsed from 90% to 44.4% within weeks, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The shift follows cautious commentary from Fed officials, with Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid warning that persistent inflation may necessitate maintaining current rates.

The crypto downturn coincides with markets digesting fresh economic data after a record 43-day government shutdown. While the Fed delivered a 25-basis-point cut in September, institutional forecasts for additional easing have grown increasingly conservative.

Robert Kiyosaki Holds Firm on Bitcoin Amid Market Downturn

Bitcoin plunged to a six-month low of $95,835, shedding 11% over the week as tech sector volatility spilled into crypto markets. The selloff triggered nearly $900 million in BTC long liquidations, though open interest remained largely intact—signaling measured deleveraging rather than panic.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of 'Rich Dad Poor Dad,' confirmed he's holding rather than selling. 'The everything bubbles are bursting,' he tweeted, attributing the downturn to global liquidity demands rather than Bitcoin's fundamentals. His stance reflects a bet against fiat currencies as governments potentially ramp up money printing.

Market structure appears resilient despite the drop. The liquidation volume represented less than 2% of total open interest—far milder than October's flash crash. Traders are watching for stability in AI-related stocks, which have been a key sentiment driver for risk assets.

Will BTC Price Hit 100000?

While BTC faces headwinds, technicals suggest a possible rebound if key support holds:

Olivia states: 'The $100K target remains plausible in 2025, but requires clearing the 20MA and improved sentiment. Monitor CFTC policy shifts and institutional flows.'

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